by Rob Lightbown
Tropical Weather Discussion - Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Surface weather analysis this morning showed an area of low pressure now emerging off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. This is the system I wrote so much of yesterday. All indications are, both from real-time data and model data, that this area of low pressure will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then. Infared satellite imagery showed a burst of deep convection and is exhibiting a well-defined cyclonic circulation. Wind shear analysis and sea surface temperatures both indicate that the environment is favorable for further development of this tropical system and I do think this disturbance will be classified as a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then.
All of the computer forecast guidance is showing that this system will develop over the coming days. In addition, the track models and the intensity models are showing that this system will remain in the eastern Atlantic over the next 5 days and that the system may steadily intensify over the next 5 days. After that, the global models, like the GFS and European model forecast a track well north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Model forecasts more than 5 days out should be taken with a grain of salt, so the track of this system will be watched very closely.
Ok, here are my thoughts on this system: As I have already mentioned, I do think that this system near the coast of Africa will be classified as a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then. I also think it will remain on a general west to west-northwest course over the next couple of days. After that, the general course of this area of low pressure depends on its strength: This morning's steering product showed two possible scenarios. One is that if this system stays weak, a more westward path can be expected. Scenario two is that if it develops and strengthens like the models are saying, then it will move more northwestward and move well north of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. So, needless to say I will be monitoring this system very closely over the coming days and I will keep you all updated on the latest information regarding it.
Tropical Weather Discussion - Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Surface weather analysis this morning showed an area of low pressure now emerging off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. This is the system I wrote so much of yesterday. All indications are, both from real-time data and model data, that this area of low pressure will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then. Infared satellite imagery showed a burst of deep convection and is exhibiting a well-defined cyclonic circulation. Wind shear analysis and sea surface temperatures both indicate that the environment is favorable for further development of this tropical system and I do think this disturbance will be classified as a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then.
All of the computer forecast guidance is showing that this system will develop over the coming days. In addition, the track models and the intensity models are showing that this system will remain in the eastern Atlantic over the next 5 days and that the system may steadily intensify over the next 5 days. After that, the global models, like the GFS and European model forecast a track well north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Model forecasts more than 5 days out should be taken with a grain of salt, so the track of this system will be watched very closely.
Ok, here are my thoughts on this system: As I have already mentioned, I do think that this system near the coast of Africa will be classified as a tropical depression by Wednesday or Thursday, if not before then. I also think it will remain on a general west to west-northwest course over the next couple of days. After that, the general course of this area of low pressure depends on its strength: This morning's steering product showed two possible scenarios. One is that if this system stays weak, a more westward path can be expected. Scenario two is that if it develops and strengthens like the models are saying, then it will move more northwestward and move well north of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. So, needless to say I will be monitoring this system very closely over the coming days and I will keep you all updated on the latest information regarding it.
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